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War Fog Bargains
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The US-Israel war on Iran (Operation Epic Fury, started Feb 28) has created indiscriminate selling across sectors with no direct exposure to the conflict. Global stocks have lost 5.5% since the war began. Airlines, homebuilders, consumer discretionary, and private equity stocks have been hammered despite limited fundamental impact. History shows wars create peak panic selloffs followed by sharp recoveries once the fog clears. Alpine Macro predicts peak war panic in 1-3 weeks, with the conflict ending within two months as Iran's offensive capabilities are reportedly 90% destroyed.
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